Even-Tinderbox
0xa63e80b7ee84ddbb391c475983e21ae7735f1b44
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.21
Realised
$0.04
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Sunset wildfire burns 1k or more acres by Sunday?
195 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2025$0.00
$-0.46
- YES
Will Trump's inaugural address be under 8 minutes?
150 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will Player 152 win Beast Games: Season 2?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will there be at least 20 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump sue Powell by March 31?$0.01Mar 29, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.01Feb 25, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Player 152 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.01Feb 16, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?$0.01Feb 16, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?$0.01Feb 3, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?$0.01Feb 3, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?$0.01Feb 3, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?$0.01Jan 30, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$0.01Jan 29, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Player 21 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.01Jan 21, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 20 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$0.01Jan 14, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?$0.01Jan 14, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?$0.01Jan 13, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's inaugural address be under 8 minutes?$0.19Jan 14, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's inaugural address be under 8 minutes?$0.01Jan 14, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSunset wildfire burns 1k or more acres by Sunday?$0.10Jan 12, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSunset wildfire burns 1k or more acres by Sunday?$0.05Jan 12, 05:06 UTC
- REWARD$0.12Jan 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLSunset wildfire burns 1k or more acres by Sunday?$0.25Jan 11, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSunset wildfire burns 1k or more acres by Sunday?$0.25Jan 10, 19:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $0.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 7, 13:35 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 29, 04:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".