Tired-Art
0xa64d76d112e7b47e5ca3f8fbc5485ae41a91cad1
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.9K
Total PnL
$-38.8K
Realised
$-2.6K
Win rate
25%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9AM ET
2549 shares @ 95.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.5K
$89.08
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
1975 shares @ 85.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.0K
$285.41
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?
1038 shares @ 81.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$959.99
$114.18
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on July 28?
918 shares @ 94.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$903.80
$34.61
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
659 shares @ 90.1¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$484.72
$-109.52
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?
1524 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$12.19
$-14.77
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
1218 shares @ 36.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$3.04
$-440.62
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET
2642 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-206.88
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 26?
2506 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-44.79
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 16?
2500 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-92.31
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$13.32Jul 28, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$280.37Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$280.37Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$9.25Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$312.60Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$66.19Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$193.93Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$25.61Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$809.01Jul 28, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$39.25Jul 28, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$9.87Jul 28, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$53.47Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$5.36Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$3.52Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$14.16Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$6.46Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$14.47Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$217.57Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$169.64Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$11.55Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
53 closed markets, 25% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $69.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.