Carefree-Willingness
0xa65399912b4029d0fccc23e3f1d1260af27c08cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-30.65
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
102 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
67 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
65 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
62 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-26.97
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
51 shares @ 58.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$1.51Jul 22, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$1.17Jul 22, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$1.05Jul 22, 01:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.27Jul 22, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 00:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.05Jul 22, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$4.14Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$2.09Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$1.19Jul 21, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$2.04Jul 21, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$1.01Jul 21, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$1.02Jul 21, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$1.34Jul 21, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$2.04Jul 21, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$1.21Jul 21, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$1.03Jul 21, 03:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$0.00Jul 21, 02:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 01:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.