Crisp-Carrot
0xa669e36ad0b120185bfd82fabf26c2d336362c3c
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-325.70
Realised
$-55.14
Win rate
41%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?
5108 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-24.76
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
129 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
110 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-15.36
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
75 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
74 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 30?
58 shares @ 44.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-25.79
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?
49 shares @ 53.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-26.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
33 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on December 30?
30 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-15.47
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?$6.00Jan 25, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?$4.84Jan 25, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?$5.00Jan 25, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?$5.00Jan 24, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$6.48Jan 24, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?$15.00Jan 24, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?$5.00Jan 24, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 23?$12.52Jan 23, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 23?$1.58Jan 23, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 23?$20.00Jan 23, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$10.00Jan 23, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$5.95Jan 23, 17:45 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$22.49Jan 23, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$8.42Jan 23, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$5.00Jan 23, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$4.00Jan 23, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$4.00Jan 23, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$1.00Jan 23, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$1.00Jan 23, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?$1.00Jan 23, 17:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $8.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 22, 16:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 25, 03:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.