Stark-Horizon
0xa67b002908627bba1f92850d86c6ddfc27d466ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.54
Total PnL
$-162.20
Realised
$23.45
Win rate
49%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Jalen Carter be traded?
10 shares @ 2.0¢·now 10.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.01
$0.81
- YES
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
286 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.43
$-1.01
- YES
Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
17 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.10
$0.02
- YES
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?
1450 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?
640 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.92
- YES
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?
533 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
House passes Massie-Khanna war powers resolution by March 13?
511 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.58
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
427 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.85
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
412 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.57
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$0.08Apr 21, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$0.02Apr 20, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$0.00Apr 19, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.5 released by April 19, 2026?$0.01Apr 19, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLForeign intervention in Gaza by April 30?$0.02Apr 19, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$0.14Apr 19, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$0.17Apr 18, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$0.34Apr 18, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$0.23Apr 18, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?$0.01Apr 18, 19:00 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?$0.29Apr 18, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$0.13Apr 18, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "AWP" be said 10+ times during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final?$0.01Apr 18, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "AWP" be said 10+ times during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final?$0.15Apr 18, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.5 released by April 19, 2026?$0.01Apr 18, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$0.43Apr 18, 09:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?$0.00Apr 18, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?$0.00Apr 18, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$0.01Apr 18, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$0.00Apr 18, 03:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
61 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 16, 17:56 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 04:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.