Surprised-Chemical
0xa681ca0f0a888e07ab3370b894339fefa7a38b89
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$235.49
Total PnL
$-354.57
Realised
$20.24
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
500 shares @ 16.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$82.50
$2.50
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 9.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$80.50
$17.50
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?
3000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?
157 shares @ 12.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$20.41
$1.57
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
100 shares @ 26.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.00
$-14.00
- YES
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
290 shares @ 13.8¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.13
$-30.86
- YES
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.90
$-4.10
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
300 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.05
$-2.55
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
1100 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-35.75
- YES
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
1000 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-26.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?$19.89May 17, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?$1.11May 17, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$0.14May 17, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$3.60May 17, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$1.87May 17, 10:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$0.61May 16, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$0.04May 16, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$11.86May 16, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$0.72May 16, 08:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$5.12May 15, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$3.34May 15, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$15.93May 15, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romania win Eurovision 2026?$28.47May 15, 22:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 15, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$26.00May 14, 10:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 13, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $53.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 17:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".