Surprised-Chemical
0xa681ca0f0a888e07ab3370b894339fefa7a38b89
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$51.38
Total PnL
$-14.2K
Realised
$-774.06
Win rate
7%
94 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
500 shares @ 16.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$37.50
$-42.50
- YES
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?
356 shares @ 7.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$13.88
$-11.03
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?
3000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
2029 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.09
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
1500 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
1300 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
1223 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-43.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
1200 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-24.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
1179 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-63.79
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
1120 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-57.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$13.30Jul 24, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$1.60Jul 24, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$2.14Jul 24, 00:23 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.50Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 3.5$60.81Jul 20, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 3.5$1.29Jul 20, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 3.5$5.74Jul 20, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 3.5$9.10Jul 20, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 3.5$6.01Jul 20, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 3.5$1.77Jul 20, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 3.5$120.27Jul 20, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLPalermo: Lina Gjorcheska vs Erika Andreeva$213.08Jul 20, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLPalermo: Lina Gjorcheska vs Erika Andreeva$10.00Jul 20, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYPalermo: Lina Gjorcheska vs Erika Andreeva$210.64Jul 20, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse$96.21Jul 20, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Facundo Acosta vs Federico Cina$54.00Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEstoril Open: Titouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli$60.06Jul 20, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampere: Daniel Galan vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly$25.10Jul 20, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampere: Daniel Galan vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly$50.50Jul 20, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYLivesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro$8.37Jul 20, 12:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 94 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
94 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $39.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 20:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 94 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.