Difficult-Elver
0xa68e2d8e45ba9a110bef5d8337cb907e2904b35b
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$725.88
Total PnL
$-54.10
Realised
$4.70
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?
301 shares @ 66.6¢·now 84.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$255.01
$54.44
- NO
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
150 shares @ 85.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$149.68
$21.81
- NO
Will AVAX reach $9 by December 31, 2026?
135 shares @ 60.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$95.17
$13.37
- NO
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 130m by August 31?
100 shares @ 34.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$92.49
$58.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?
367 shares @ 34.3¢·now 15.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$56.02
$-69.83
- YES
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?
103 shares @ 46.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$34.95
$-12.38
- YES
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?
50 shares @ 38.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.00
$0.00
- NO
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?
20 shares @ 56.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.40
$1.20
- NO
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?
100 shares @ 11.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.29
$-6.71
- YES
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 130m by August 31?
50 shares @ 60.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.75
$-26.25
Recent activity
- REWARD$4.91Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$75.83Jul 23, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$4.02Jul 23, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$0.54Jul 23, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$1.00Jul 23, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$7.70Jul 23, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$33.20Jul 23, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$43.30Jul 23, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?$0.17Jul 23, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?$23.00Jul 23, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?$23.00Jul 23, 18:22 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 16:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $15.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 07:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.