Ragged-Rake
0xa6c0300bf157059a4b1574367a7b9848a572fee0
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$4.58
Total PnL
$-74.53
Realised
$1.22
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.7¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$4.58
$0.09
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4?
112 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 3?
85 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
50 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 9?
32 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4?
25 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 7?
24 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3?
24 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4?
17 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?$4.50Jul 22, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22?$5.24Jul 22, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22?$4.50Jul 22, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 16?$4.96Jul 16, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 16?$4.22Jul 16, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 14?$4.95Jul 14, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 14?$2.14Jul 14, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 14?$4.25Jul 14, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 14?$3.85Jul 14, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 13?$4.95Jul 13, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 13?$4.25Jul 13, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 12?$2.57Jul 12, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 12?$4.54Jul 11, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 7?$1.69Jul 7, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 7?$4.53Jul 7, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?$2.39Jul 5, 10:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 5?$2.13Jul 5, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 5?$2.30Jul 5, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 5?$3.06Jul 5, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 5?$2.42Jul 5, 04:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 13:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 21:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.