False-Conception
0xa708e10aa36da64b43910c0b03b4ff5958f76720
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$510.05
Total PnL
$-34.56
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
380 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$380.05
$1.19
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
130 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$130.00
$4.03
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4200 July 28–August 3?
590 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2025$0.00
$-11.80
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
560 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.12
- YES
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?
516 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-8.16
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
480 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?
434 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-2.22
- YES
Will the price of Solana be less than $140 on October 31?
404 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.70
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
370 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-8.88
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?
278 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$125.97Mar 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$378.86Mar 26, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?$8.88Mar 22, 09:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?$130.00Mar 19, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$2.40Nov 26, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $220 in November?$309.07Nov 26, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $220 in November?$309.69Nov 26, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?$1.12Nov 8, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?$9.57Oct 30, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be less than $140 on October 31?$2.70Oct 30, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?$138.18Oct 29, 21:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$170.00Oct 29, 00:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?$180.00Oct 29, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?$2.50Oct 6, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?$179.82Sep 26, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$169.66Aug 15, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?$2.22Aug 11, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4200 July 28–August 3?$11.80Aug 1, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?$8.16Jul 23, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?$234.72Jul 7, 06:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $191.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 8, 15:31 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 13:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".