Wallet digest

active

Activity score

46/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$12.13

Total PnL

$-1.5K

Realised

$-731.25

Win rate

18%

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
7 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$6.76
$1.76
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$5.38
$0.38
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
100 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-3.33
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
50 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026
$0.00
$-14.08
JD GAMING
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner
46 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-17.30
JD GAMING
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
42 shares @ 38.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-16.26
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
34 shares @ 33.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026
$0.00
$-11.58
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
31 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-9.46
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
20 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026
$0.00
$-3.33

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.08Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$5.02May 21, 15:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$5.09May 21, 14:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$5.34May 15, 11:29 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.34May 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.18May 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.24May 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.57May 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.23May 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.03May 2, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$2.08Apr 28, 23:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.04Apr 28, 14:20 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.10Apr 28, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.51Apr 22, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.57Apr 21, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.72Apr 18, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.21Apr 16, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.20Apr 15, 00:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$10.03Apr 14, 09:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$6.00Apr 14, 03:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

18% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 18% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity31 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry97 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 17
Avg trade size: $5.56
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 13, 10:38 UTC
Last active: Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:03:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data