Original-Nature
0xa73a9e9c57c35f7e069eb10fb735d071ab22e9b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$60.00
Total PnL
$-394.95
Realised
$189.78
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?
36 shares @ 8.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$36.00
$32.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?
24 shares @ 7.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$24.00
$22.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 1?
400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 28?
345 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 1?
300 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 1?
231 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 1?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 28?
196 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 28?
170 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.17
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?$0.00Mar 23, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?$1.08Mar 23, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 24?$0.90Mar 23, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 24?$0.18Mar 23, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?$1.08Mar 23, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?$0.96Mar 23, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 24?$1.08Mar 23, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 24?$1.08Mar 23, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 24?$1.08Mar 23, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 24?$0.92Mar 23, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 24?$1.08Mar 23, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 24?$0.63Mar 23, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 24?$0.76Mar 23, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 24?$1.07Mar 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 24?$1.08Mar 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 24?$0.45Mar 23, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 24?$0.45Mar 23, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 23?$0.99Mar 23, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 23?$0.18Mar 23, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 23?$0.18Mar 23, 01:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 06:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 23, 14:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.