Wilted-Risk
0xa764daccf50953559cec7e54e9a1d7a62abd6f48
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$12.47
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
120 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
116 shares @ 19.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-22.72
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
100 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
97 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-21.57
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
95 shares @ 38.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-36.28
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
93 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-50.56
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
91 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-31.75
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
90 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
90 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
90 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$16.00Aug 2, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$6.72Aug 2, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$6.57Aug 2, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$2.85Aug 2, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$4.75Aug 2, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$6.80Aug 2, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$8.00Aug 2, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$6.49Aug 2, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$5.94Aug 2, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$4.53Aug 2, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$8.00Aug 2, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$6.11Aug 2, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$7.00Aug 2, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$6.28Aug 2, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$3.98Aug 2, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$3.62Aug 2, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$6.87Aug 2, 05:16 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$8.00Aug 2, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$6.34Aug 2, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$6.57Aug 2, 05:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $5.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 01:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 09:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.