Lively-Trail
0xa7bd04f4dcd01aed4ceb05750005f5c6815a26d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
153
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-579.08
Realised
$-3.56
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 153- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
459 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-4.11
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
215 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
194 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2025$0.00
$-2.03
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
165 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
156 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
124 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-17.68
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
99 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 24, 2025$0.00
$-9.12
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025?
69 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will Trump say "Woke" or "Politically Correct" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
50 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2025$0.00
$-0.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?$2.12Jan 15, 11:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$2.12Jan 15, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeeker FDV above $400M one day after launch?$4.25Jan 15, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$5.70Jan 12, 07:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? $1.43Jan 12, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$1.82Jan 12, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$0.00Dec 6, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$0.00Dec 6, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$1.00Dec 6, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$1.00Dec 6, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$1.37Dec 6, 14:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$1.67Dec 6, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$1.00Dec 6, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$1.00Dec 4, 18:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$2.22Dec 4, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$1.00Dec 4, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$1.00Dec 4, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$1.00Dec 4, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$1.00Dec 4, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$0.00Dec 4, 12:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 2, 15:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 15, 11:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".