Villainous-Mercury
0xa7c485a6b2f48677649a6f5e89077bc70c843f16
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$171.17
Total PnL
$-98.85
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?
51 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$50.50
$0.51
- NO
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
50 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$50.45
$0.45
- NO
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam?
50 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$50.25
$0.25
- YES
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
20 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$19.97
$-0.02
- UP
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 10?
51 shares @ 98.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-49.99
- NO
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
51 shares @ 99.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-50.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?$50.80Mar 30, 15:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?$48.32Mar 21, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?$50.56Mar 21, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 20?$51.42Mar 21, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 17:51 UTC
- REDEEMGame Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)$50.23Mar 19, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?$47.60Mar 19, 22:51 UTC
- REDEEMJalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5$50.23Mar 19, 14:51 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$50.50Mar 19, 14:51 UTC
- REDEEMBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?$50.55Mar 19, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)$50.03Mar 19, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?$49.99Mar 18, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$49.99Mar 18, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMQatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?$50.28Mar 17, 20:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?$50.30Mar 17, 20:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?$50.30Mar 17, 20:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$50.30Mar 17, 20:28 UTC
- REDEEMRobinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 16?$50.50Mar 17, 20:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$50.50Mar 17, 20:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $49.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 04:38 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 15:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.