Judicious-Lunchmeat
0xa7d2ec6680f4e5f6ab0da244d8006eec3e20f954
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$4.3K
Total PnL
$966.20
Realised
$299.06
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
1290 shares @ 50.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$1.3K
$637.29
- NO
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
1049 shares @ 87.1¢·now 96.6¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.0K
$99.60
- NO
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
406 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$355.14
$10.18
- NO
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
350 shares @ 90.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$300.94
$-14.00
- NO
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
300 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.7¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$281.10
$14.10
- YES
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?
470 shares @ 47.9¢·now 34.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$159.80
$-65.10
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
488 shares @ 26.4¢·now 31.7¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$154.66
$25.92
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
1167 shares @ 14.8¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$140.01
$-32.61
- YES
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
407 shares @ 33.9¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$126.28
$-11.99
- NO
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
96 shares @ 89.9¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$95.54
$8.93
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$13.04Jul 29, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$13.16Jul 29, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$13.99Jul 29, 17:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$13.99Jul 29, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$14.47Jul 29, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$13.99Jul 29, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.00Jul 29, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$499.50Jul 29, 14:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$0.00Jul 29, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$14.47Jul 29, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$21.88Jul 29, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$21.88Jul 29, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$8.24Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$9.20Jul 29, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$23.00Jul 29, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$2.76Jul 29, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$7.00Jul 29, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$34.95Jul 29, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$299.00Jul 29, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.33Jul 29, 07:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $46.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 17:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.