0xa7deafd49d33d230e8b0adf58fbb63301f6545a6
0xa7deafd49d33d230e8b0adf58fbb63301f6545a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$401.55
Total PnL
$-80.02
Realised
$28.25
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
155 shares @ 75.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$155.10
$37.86
- YES
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
52 shares @ 78.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$52.00
$11.00
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
50 shares @ 32.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$50.00
$34.00
- YES
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
50 shares @ 65.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$49.99
$17.39
- YES
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
40 shares @ 72.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$40.00
$11.00
- YES
Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?
24 shares @ 93.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$24.24
$1.60
- NO
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
20 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$20.00
$8.20
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
12 shares @ 25.2¢·now 85.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.22
$7.20
- YES
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?
305 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-52.33
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
74 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-42.92
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 21, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- May 10, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.