Novel-Doorway
0xa7e26ed3999c5bc7a23fb8ad1180307246e9b1a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-392.43
Realised
$-9.60
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 17?
2182 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-13.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 1?
600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 25?
571 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?
367 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 26?
364 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 16?
286 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-8.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 17?
182 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-39.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 26?
145 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-14.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 27?
125 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 1?
103 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 15?$8.13Mar 17, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 15?$5.04Mar 15, 21:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 15?$6.77Mar 15, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 15?$5.03Mar 14, 11:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?$4.21Mar 13, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?$4.91Mar 13, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?$4.89Mar 13, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?$3.42Mar 13, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?$1.58Mar 13, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 11?$7.98Mar 11, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11?$6.78Mar 11, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 11?$3.50Mar 11, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 11?$1.46Mar 11, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11?$5.00Mar 11, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 10?$7.75Mar 10, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 10?$4.96Mar 10, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 12?$4.96Mar 10, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on March 10?$6.45Mar 10, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on March 10?$3.99Mar 9, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on March 10?$1.01Mar 9, 23:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 3, 19:01 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 04:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.