Polished-Runaway
0xa7f1b3e0c642796a309ecb7bb8d71f56a69ec062
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-411.66
Realised
$-29.32
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 15?
90 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-54.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 15?
46 shares @ 55.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-25.36
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 15?
45 shares @ 64.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-29.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 16?
41 shares @ 64.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-26.49
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 16?
40 shares @ 72.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-29.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 15?
37 shares @ 67.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-24.83
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on May 16?
36 shares @ 54.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-19.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 15?
31 shares @ 63.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.81
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 15?
29 shares @ 55.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.97
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on May 16?
29 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-9.85
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.63May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 19?$3.14May 18, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18?$0.22May 17, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 17?$2.34May 17, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 18?$3.15May 17, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17?$4.60May 17, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?$4.16May 17, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 18?$5.83May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 18?$5.85May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 18?$5.93May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 18?$5.93May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 18?$6.18May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 18?$6.28May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 18?$6.39May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 19?$6.11May 17, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on May 17?$6.50May 17, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 18?$6.79May 17, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 17?$7.11May 17, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17?$7.30May 17, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 17?$8.38May 17, 08:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $7.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 08:54 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.