Far-Off-Erosion
0xa8422ef2508826a2d08b3aafc138a1b3474de305
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.5K
Realised
$83.81
Win rate
64%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan end in a draw?
55657 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-93.89
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 14?
24878 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-27.94
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 15?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?
5335 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-190.81
- YES
Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?
3890 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-330.95
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
3773 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-483.99
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 16?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
2500 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- NO
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
2470 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-375.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$10.28Jun 13, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$1.04May 19, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$5.20May 19, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$3.12May 19, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$194.71May 19, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$50.00Mar 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$341.09Mar 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$272.82Mar 9, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?$259.47Mar 9, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?$10.00Mar 8, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?$84.00Mar 8, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$107.35Mar 8, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?$120.67Mar 8, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$120.67Mar 8, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$112.74Mar 8, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$112.74Mar 7, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$143.29Mar 6, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$143.29Mar 6, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$557.23Mar 6, 00:46 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?$32.79Mar 6, 00:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $130.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 12:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 18:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.