Impossible-Means-Connotation
0xa846d986036e20df34a7798ba4084ae688f21a8b
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$122.60
Total PnL
$-1.33
Realised
$0.19
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 25?
3 shares @ 92.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$3.23
$0.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 25?
3 shares @ 91.3¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.89
$-0.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 25?
4 shares @ 87.9¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.40
$-0.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 25?
2 shares @ 87.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.31
$0.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 25?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 26?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.06
$0.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on July 26?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 26?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 26?
2 shares @ 96.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.97
$-0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?
2 shares @ 92.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.95
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 26?$1.01Jul 25, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 26?$0.95Jul 25, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 26?$1.01Jul 25, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 26?$1.01Jul 25, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 26?$1.01Jul 25, 08:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 25?$2.21Jul 25, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 27?$1.00Jul 25, 08:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 24?$1.01Jul 25, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 27?$1.00Jul 25, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 27?$1.00Jul 25, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 24?$1.04Jul 25, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 24?$1.05Jul 25, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 27?$1.01Jul 25, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?$0.96Jul 25, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?$1.00Jul 25, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 25?$1.11Jul 25, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on July 27?$1.00Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?$1.00Jul 25, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$1.03Jul 25, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$1.03Jul 25, 07:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 05:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 09:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.