Grumpy-Jar
0xa847456440708538a59983da79b1951d948d3f69
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$20.22
Total PnL
$-0.33
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$10.59Jul 21, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$10.66Jun 2, 10:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$4.30Apr 23, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the WA-02 House seat?$4.55Apr 23, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.00Apr 23, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.95Apr 10, 10:03 UTC
- REWARD$1.07Apr 9, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$4.00Mar 27, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the WA-02 House seat?$4.60Mar 2, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 30?$12.30Mar 2, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 30?$10.33Jan 30, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMKraken IPO in 2025?$0.00Jan 29, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMMaduro out in 2025?$0.00Jan 29, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMKraken IPO in 2025?$2.05Jan 29, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMMaduro out in 2025?$3.39Jan 29, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro out in 2025?$3.12Dec 12, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pope Francis rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?$1.01Dec 12, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO in 2025?$1.00Nov 28, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO in 2025?$1.00Nov 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Francis rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?$1.00Nov 2, 09:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $28.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 13:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.