Good-Natured-Pyramid
0xa8609dfd8442d4e1f1e8a5673e25b9016e7c8d22
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-327.94
Realised
$-113.28
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $86,000 on January 23?
243 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.19
- YES
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?
241 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 17?
222 shares @ 26.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-57.95
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 22?
213 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.28
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 4 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?
200 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31?
194 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.86
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 24?
152 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.81
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 30?
113 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 3?
107 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.24
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 29?
104 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.61
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 20?$176.31Jul 20, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 20?$0.60Jul 19, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 20?$174.48Jul 19, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 1?$1.23Jun 30, 17:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 25?$158.97Jun 25, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 25?$0.30Jun 25, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 25?$156.29Jun 25, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?$173.19May 23, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?$0.25May 22, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?$170.00May 22, 23:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 16?$180.43May 16, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 16?$176.28May 15, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 9?$3.52May 8, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 8?$189.55May 8, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 8?$187.46May 7, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 30?$59.78May 7, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$147.27May 1, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 27?$7.05Apr 26, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 27?$8.10Apr 26, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$145.50Apr 19, 18:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $55.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 21:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 16:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.