Respectful-Gynaecology
0xa861023f06fb4971526f781813b31cd31f9fda06
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-587.98
Realised
$-183.92
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?
285 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-2.87
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 6?
284 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-3.46
- YES
Will Solana dip to $120 November 10-16?
283 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.19
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6PM ET
283 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 18?
282 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.32
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 1?
281 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-5.09
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on November 23?
279 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.18
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on November 18?
277 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.81
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 3?
275 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-2.75
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 25?
274 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-3.83
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 28?$117.18Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 28?$115.07Jul 27, 17:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 1?$120.71Jul 1, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 1?$119.02Jun 30, 17:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 27?$111.11May 27, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 27?$108.11May 27, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?$91.51May 18, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?$88.76May 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 11?$113.13May 11, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 11?$111.31May 10, 23:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 19?$112.96Apr 30, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 19?$109.57Apr 19, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 18?$1.58Apr 18, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 28?$105.52Apr 18, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 14?$2.52Apr 14, 04:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $92,000 on November 20?$0.00Apr 11, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on November 25?$0.00Mar 31, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 12?$0.00Mar 29, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 28?$102.88Mar 27, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 26?$98.38Mar 27, 22:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $37.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 02:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.