Exotic-Faucet
0xa8613e350f43474a01ccb8b1e91381723145bfb6
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$79.47
Total PnL
$-55.41
Realised
$-3.41
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
23 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$22.98
$2.07
- NO
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?
22 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.56
$1.16
- NO
Will José Miguel Aguilar Berrocal win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
21 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$20.74
$0.66
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
9 shares @ 65.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.24
$2.26
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
3 shares @ 82.5¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.44
$0.28
- YES
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$2.24
$0.20
- NO
US x China Military clash before 2027?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.27
$0.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
230 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- SUNS
Suns vs. Warriors
221 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-16.00
- JAZZ
Magic vs. Jazz
182 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.07Jan 30, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.04Jan 30, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.86Jan 29, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.97Jan 29, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.18Jan 25, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$10.24Jan 25, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?$9.84Jan 25, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.92Jan 25, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.01Jan 25, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.01Jan 25, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.00Jan 25, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.01Jan 25, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.14Jan 25, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.18Jan 25, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no coalition by October 31?$1.28Jan 25, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.03Jan 25, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.59Jan 25, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.05Jan 25, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.00Jan 25, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no coalition by October 31?$0.33Jan 25, 06:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 23, 09:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 30, 11:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.