Lost-Octagon
0xa861d8383dc950eebf7e4c4a707225404dc96e20
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$6.00
Total PnL
$3.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12AM ET$3.00Jan 27, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$0.00Oct 16, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$57.50Oct 16, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$574.50Oct 16, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - October 15, 5AM ET$619.00Oct 15, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 15, 5AM ET$309.50Oct 15, 07:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 5PM ET$229.00Oct 15, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 5PM ET$114.50Oct 14, 17:54 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - October 13, 2PM ET$148.00Oct 14, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3PM ET$0.00Oct 14, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 13, 2PM ET$74.00Oct 13, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3PM ET$1.1KOct 13, 15:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $100 in August?$2.59Sep 10, 06:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 27?$5.00Sep 10, 06:47 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 5, 11PM ET$0.00Sep 10, 06:47 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by decision?$0.00Sep 10, 06:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Slovan Bratislava vs. Kairat Almaty end in a draw?$5.00Sep 10, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by decision?$3.80Sep 4, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $100 in August?$2.59Aug 24, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 27?$4.05Aug 21, 03:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $87.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 04:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 27, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.