Wiry-Separation
0xa875e02ee4af0c0c05b87864cb6dfa762cfa9f99
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$96.92
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-512.81
Win rate
0%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
114 shares @ 35.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.24
$-1.76
- YES
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?
43 shares @ 46.2¢·now 51.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.27
$2.27
- YES
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
59 shares @ 42.1¢·now 35.5¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$21.07
$-3.93
- YES
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
262 shares @ 3.8¢·now 5.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.34
$5.34
- YES
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03?
647 shares @ 61.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-400.00
- YES
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?
566 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?
476 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
468 shares @ 34.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-160.00
- YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?
464 shares @ 58.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-272.17
- YES
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?
400 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$15.42Aug 18, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$10.30Aug 18, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$20.64Aug 18, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$20.66Aug 18, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?$20.54Aug 15, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$32.07Aug 14, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?$10.00Aug 11, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 10?$10.45Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?$31.25Jul 29, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$10.38Jul 28, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?$10.27Jul 28, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?$10.25Jul 28, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$102.76Jul 19, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYJulián Álvarez: 1+ goals$5.20Jul 19, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina to win the second half?$10.36Jul 19, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$10.29Jul 19, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$10.37Jul 19, 18:47 UTC
- REDEEMKylian Mbappé: 2+ goals$41.67Jul 18, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-18?$36.37Jul 18, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 2+ goals$10.38Jul 18, 20:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 91 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
91 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $24.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 21:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 01:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.