0xa8828b0eaf36dd290276708f421f640f1b30bd08
0xa8828b0eaf36dd290276708f421f640f1b30bd08
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$35.98
Total PnL
$-65.89
Realised
$-2.97
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
11 shares @ 57.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$6.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?
9 shares @ 52.8¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$5.43
$0.53
- YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?
11 shares @ 44.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$5.28
$0.28
- YES
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$4.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$4.74
$-0.26
- YES
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$2.58
$0.58
- YES
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$1.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?
13 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$1.94
$-0.06
- YES
Raphinha: 1+ assists
6 shares @ 35.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$1.86
$-0.14
- YES
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$1.17
$-0.83
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.