Wallet digest

active

Activity score

75/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$40.11

Total PnL

$0.10

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

33%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
20 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$20.04
$0.03
YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 24?
10 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$10.03
$0.03
NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on July 24?
5 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$5.05
$0.05
UNDER
CA Platense vs. CA Unión: O/U 5.5
5 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$4.98
$-0.02

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$4.98Jul 24, 14:19 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of July 20 2026?$4.88Jul 24, 14:04 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of July 20 2026?$5.00Jul 24, 14:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.01Jul 24, 13:56 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on July 24?$5.01Jul 24, 13:54 UTC
TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 24?$3.88Jul 24, 13:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$5.00Jul 24, 13:04 UTC
REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$10.13Jul 24, 12:33 UTC
TRADEBUYCA Platense vs. CA Unión: O/U 5.5$5.00Jul 24, 12:09 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$5.00Jul 24, 11:53 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$5.00Jul 24, 09:46 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 2026?$4.74Jul 24, 09:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 2026?$5.00Jul 24, 09:09 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$5.00Jul 24, 08:46 UTC
TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$4.99Jul 24, 08:31 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 24?$5.01Jul 24, 07:23 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 24?$5.00Jul 24, 06:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on July 24?$4.98Jul 24, 06:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on July 24?$5.00Jul 24, 03:50 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 24?$5.01Jul 24, 03:49 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

14/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

33% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk59 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $5.47
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 23, 17:28 UTC
Last active: Jul 24, 14:19 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:21:08 UTC·src:Polymarket Data