Calm-Spruce
0xa8e3a8923c676458ae31bad2ba89c4ea0dc538b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-96.69
Realised
$-1.15
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on May 20?
6285 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-8.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 17?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 20?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on May 17?
2054 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 17?
826 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 22?
293 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 23?
162 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 17?
90 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 18?
80 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-6.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23?
52 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-23.49
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23?$18.67May 24, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23?$6.20May 23, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23?$6.95May 23, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23?$5.63May 23, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23?$5.82May 23, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23?$5.73May 23, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 23?$6.29May 23, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 22?$7.71May 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 22?$6.29May 22, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22?$7.69May 22, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22?$6.01May 22, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22?$3.08May 22, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22?$3.09May 21, 23:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 21?$1.32May 21, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 21?$1.09May 21, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21?$3.08May 21, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 21?$3.09May 21, 01:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20?$6.38May 21, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 21?$0.10May 21, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 21?$3.13May 21, 00:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $11.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 09:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 01:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.