Lively-Regulation
0xa8fd85011f7e621d63dc2b7c9af476af112d11a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-720.77
Realised
$-13.72
Win rate
1%
96 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22?
3770 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
811 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-299.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
108 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-55.00
- YES
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?
88 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
63 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
53 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
33 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
29 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
28 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
26 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$5.23Aug 1, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$1.20Aug 1, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$5.23Aug 1, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$5.16Aug 1, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.02Aug 1, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$0.61Aug 1, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$5.24Aug 1, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$3.49Aug 1, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$5.26Aug 1, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.68Jul 31, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.27Jul 31, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.90Jul 31, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.23Jul 31, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$5.05Jul 30, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$5.22Jul 30, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$7.02Jul 30, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$5.28Jul 30, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$7.38Jul 30, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$5.24Jul 30, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$5.24Jul 29, 17:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
66/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 96 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
96 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 16:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 17:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 96 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.