Wallet digest

active

Activity score

37/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$4.55

Total PnL

$-156.05

Realised

$-6.09

Win rate

79 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 82

YES
Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17?
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026
$2.12
$0.12
NO
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 1 - 3 AFC Bournemouth?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 23, 2026
$1.22
$-0.00
NO
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 2 AFC Bournemouth?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026
$1.21
$-0.01
UNDER
FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 0.5
41 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
MADISON KEYS
National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys
41 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
CEZAR CRETU
Hamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller
24 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026
$0.00
$-11.65
YES
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-08-09?
22 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
NO
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-08-08?
22 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.84
UNDER
Anapolis FC GO vs. Guarani FC SP: O/U 2.5
21 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
YES
Will FK Borac Banja Luka vs. FK ML Viciebsk end in a draw?
20 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.43

Recent activity

TRADEBUYCA Central Córdoba vs. Instituto AC Córdoba: O/U 1.5$2.08Aug 17, 00:06 UTC
REDEEMIndiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 187.5$2.49Aug 17, 00:06 UTC
TRADEBUYIndiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 187.5$1.21Aug 16, 21:08 UTC
REDEEMCincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Francisco Cerundolo$1.11Aug 16, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Francisco Cerundolo$1.11Aug 16, 20:06 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Manchester City?$1.24Aug 16, 19:58 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Mary Stoiana vs Tereza Valentova$2.11Aug 14, 22:02 UTC
REDEEMWill LASK Linz win on 2026-08-14?$2.11Aug 14, 22:01 UTC
TRADEBUYWill SC Recife vs. Londrina EC end in a draw?$1.14Aug 14, 21:01 UTC
REDEEMWill Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-08-14?$1.08Aug 14, 20:27 UTC
TRADEBUYCA Acassuso vs. CA Ferrocarril Midland: O/U 0.5$1.06Aug 14, 18:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-08-14?$1.04Aug 14, 18:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill LASK Linz win on 2026-08-14?$2.02Aug 14, 18:06 UTC
REDEEMWill FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2026-08-14?$3.24Aug 14, 18:05 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Santos FC vs. CSyD Macará end in a draw?$1.15Aug 13, 23:20 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)$1.34Aug 13, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYAstana: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Jie Cui$1.12Aug 13, 06:47 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)$1.05Aug 13, 06:44 UTC
TRADEBUYWill FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2026-08-14?$1.84Aug 13, 06:21 UTC
REDEEMNational Bank Open: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina$3.77Aug 13, 05:27 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 79 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

79 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry55 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $1.67
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 11, 02:39 UTC
Last active: Aug 17, 00:06 UTC
Win rate sample: 79 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:15:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data