Negligible-Confidence
0xa938e13a05925a06cb361d1c8cbd4030555abeb7
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-164.86
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Republicans control 225 seats in the House after the election?
31000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2024$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1%?
14000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Republicans control 226 seats in the House after the election?
3990 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2024$0.00
$-3.99
- YES
Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5
1035 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Republicans control 224 seats in the House after the election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- GAUFF
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina
55 shares @ 38.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYShelton vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 3.5$8.45Jan 28, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLSet Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)$8.45Jan 28, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Thunder (-15.5)$10.00Jan 27, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: 76ers (-10.5)$10.00Jan 27, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYZach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5$10.00Jan 27, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)$4.81Jan 27, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)$10.00Jan 27, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMSet Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)$15.03Jan 27, 18:36 UTC
- REDEEMSet Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)$29.77Jan 27, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)$11.96Jan 27, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)$5.00Jan 27, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina$1.00Jan 27, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina$5.00Jan 27, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina$5.00Jan 27, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMAustralian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien$7.46Jan 27, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina$5.00Jan 27, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMSet Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5)$15.50Jan 27, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina$5.00Jan 26, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5)$5.00Jan 26, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)$1.54Jan 26, 23:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $7.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 19, 22:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 28, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.