Organic-State
0xa9783e9062f53c3f5fd081e542fe08e4c56a5801
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
813 shares @ 64.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-522.42
- YES
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Audio Design at the 2025 Game Awards?
392 shares @ 65.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-257.45
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
385 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will McLaren get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
163 shares @ 65.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-106.75
- YES
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
161 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-46.71
- AUGER-ALIASSIME
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Red Bull get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
93 shares @ 75.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-70.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5)$11.33Jan 22, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?$11.33Jan 22, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?$8.27Jan 21, 19:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Villarreal finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?$8.27Jan 21, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$281.08Jan 6, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Real Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?$281.08Jan 6, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$241.34Jan 5, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMGrizzlies vs. Lakers$48.83Jan 5, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$192.51Jan 5, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrizzlies vs. Lakers$29.30Jan 2, 19:57 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$21.22Jan 1, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Real Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?$8.08Jan 1, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$190.01Dec 31, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$20.00Dec 31, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$20.00Dec 31, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?$10.00Dec 31, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?$10.00Dec 18, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards?$30.00Dec 14, 09:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Art Direction at the 2025 Game Awards?$72.86Dec 14, 09:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?$147.15Dec 14, 09:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $106.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 24, 18:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 22, 16:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".