Finished-Legislature
0xa9a2095593ae5e55d929295605faf88dbedba0eb
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-345.37
Realised
$-51.51
Win rate
31%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- DOWN
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on February 25?
80 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-15.37
- DOWN
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on April 6?
78 shares @ 42.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-32.89
- UP
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on February 27?
65 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.95
- DOWN
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 6?
54 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.21
- DOWN
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 25?
50 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
- DOWN
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on February 25?
47 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.45
- DOWN
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 1?
42 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.69
- DOWN
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 1?
39 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.19
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on April 6?
34 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.04
- DOWN
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on March 12?
33 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMRocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 17?$5.28Apr 18, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 17?$2.22Apr 18, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMApple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 17?$6.30Apr 18, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 13 above $255?$2.00Apr 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 13 above $215?$4.11Apr 18, 00:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 13 above $265?$1.50Apr 17, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 13 above $235?$1.75Apr 17, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on April 17?$2.00Apr 17, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of April 13 above $260?$2.00Apr 17, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close at $245-$250 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?$2.23Apr 17, 23:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?$2.25Apr 17, 23:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 13 above $240?$3.01Apr 17, 23:51 UTC
- REDEEMRussell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on April 17?$1.25Apr 17, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $245-$250 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?$0.01Apr 17, 14:15 UTC
- MERGEWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of April 13 above $265?$0.32Apr 17, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 17?$2.05Apr 17, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYApple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 17?$2.02Apr 17, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on April 17?$1.96Apr 17, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYDow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 17?$0.03Apr 17, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYDow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 17?$0.61Apr 17, 13:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
32 closed markets, 31% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 16, 14:14 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 18, 07:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.