Friendly-Legislation
0xa9b73b68f02f26238e2fa948fe0b7dbeb5bff43c
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-266.62
Realised
$37.75
Win rate
78%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?
70 shares @ 0.9¢·now 48.2¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$33.74
$33.11
- NO
Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?
35 shares @ 55.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$21.17
$1.93
- NO
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $575B by July 31?
24 shares @ 38.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$19.44
$10.32
- NO
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 24.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.12
$12.12
- NO
Who will win the gold medal in Men's Skateboard Vert Best Trick at X Games New Orleans 2026?
18 shares @ 36.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$17.33
$10.84
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
24 shares @ 47.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.48
$4.20
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
23 shares @ 63.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.18
$0.69
- NO
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?
35 shares @ 42.0¢·now 42.9¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$15.02
$0.32
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
33 shares @ 37.3¢·now 45.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$14.99
$2.71
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 44.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.83
$7.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?$4.37Jul 25, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?$0.36Jul 25, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?$3.01Jul 25, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?$0.15Jul 25, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?$9.42Jul 25, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$7.52Jul 25, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$2.35Jul 25, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$2.35Jul 25, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$2.35Jul 25, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)$3.49Jul 25, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?$9.22Jul 25, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals$5.91Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals$0.21Jul 25, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWho will win the gold medal in Men's Skateboard Vert Best Trick at X Games New Orleans 2026?$4.51Jul 25, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWho will win the gold medal in Men's Skateboard Vert Best Trick at X Games New Orleans 2026?$6.49Jul 25, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $70 on July 26?$0.14Jul 25, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?$9.72Jul 25, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?$5.70Jul 25, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$9.90Jul 25, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 27?$2.82Jul 25, 18:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 13:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 22:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.