Outrageous-Duffel
0xa9d1564a39e8c87fcab9a45131d805bf5b6bc5a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-104.67
Realised
$4.27
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 5PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI ISLANDERS
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 5PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
33 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by February 28, 2026?
24 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?
20 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-20?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by February 28?
19 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
19 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?$15.63Mar 26, 06:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?$0.00Mar 15, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 3 days or more?$0.00Feb 26, 08:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?$21.17Feb 26, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?$6.27Feb 25, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026?$12.39Feb 13, 10:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Toretske by February 28?$13.16Feb 5, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?$33.33Feb 5, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?$20.00Feb 3, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?$10.00Feb 3, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026?$10.00Feb 3, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Toretske by February 28?$10.00Feb 3, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?$5.00Feb 3, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?$5.00Feb 3, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?$5.00Feb 3, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?$5.00Feb 3, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?$5.00Feb 3, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?$5.00Feb 3, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?$5.00Feb 3, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?$5.00Feb 3, 13:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $7.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 20, 21:29 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 06:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.