Nocturnal-Pill
0xa9ebc4bea9da85c7c29edb752a5e39ade4e33d11
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$201.98
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-20.00
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
394 shares @ 12.7¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$110.04
$60.04
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
596 shares @ 8.4¢·now 14.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$83.19
$33.19
- YES
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.75
$-22.75
- YES
Will AJ Barner win the Super Bowl LX MVP?
11074 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-11.07
- YES
Will Hunter Henry win the Super Bowl LX MVP?
3376 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or higher on March 19?
799 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19?
457 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-13.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?
410 shares @ 72.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-295.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 24?
400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 19?
373 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-24.60
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 3, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.