Crisp-Fuel-Gloom
0xaa1d1e522a4108f434f51bf5ceb0f461c7bd0eac
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$140.60
Total PnL
$-337.55
Realised
$-4.12
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Catena launch a token by December 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$27.00
$-16.50
- YES
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$25.25
$-18.25
- YES
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 63.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$22.50
$-9.00
- YES
Will LI.FI launch a token by December 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$17.50
$-26.00
- YES
Will Ambient launch a token by December 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$17.50
$-26.00
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?
50 shares @ 37.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.00
$-6.50
- YES
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by December 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$11.75
$-32.75
- NO
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 42.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2026$4.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16B by July 31?
16 shares @ 76.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.35
$-9.98
- YES
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by July 31?
50 shares @ 44.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.75
$-21.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$20.10Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$1.39Jul 20, 13:03 UTC
- REWARD$55.02Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16B by July 31?$26.55Jul 14, 02:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?$4.41Jul 13, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?$40.59Jul 12, 22:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?$40.19Jul 11, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?$19.58Jul 11, 12:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 9?$0.35Jul 11, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90?$0.00Jul 11, 05:55 UTC
- REWARD$1.09Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?$23.33Jul 10, 04:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by December 31?$37.13Jul 9, 11:59 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner$5.00Jul 9, 10:51 UTC
- SPLITLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner$4.00Jul 6, 10:42 UTC
- SPLITLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner$1.00Jul 6, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON - Game 3 Winner$279.70Jul 6, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON - Game 3 Winner$14.72Jul 6, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON - Game 3 Winner$3.25Jul 6, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON - Game 3 Winner$17.16Jul 6, 05:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $36.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 01:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.