Outrageous-Carload
0xaa2873c371b71d36d31ea67be7e8be97c072090b
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.69
Total PnL
$-432.50
Realised
$283.86
Win rate
80%
161 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 19?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$3.00
$1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19?
352 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$2.46
$-0.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19?
223 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.22
$-4.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 9?
2166 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 20?
1824 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14?
1674 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 24?
1634 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 18?
1550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on March 26?
1481 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24?
1465 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.26
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19?$0.80Jun 19, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19?$0.60Jun 19, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19?$1.79Jun 19, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20?$0.38Jun 19, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19?$2.60Jun 19, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19?$1.71Jun 19, 03:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19?$0.89Jun 19, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 19?$0.33Jun 19, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19?$3.00Jun 19, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19?$4.83Jun 19, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19?$0.04Jun 19, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19?$3.00Jun 19, 02:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19?$0.73Jun 19, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 19?$0.52Jun 19, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19?$0.00Jun 19, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20?$4.97Jun 19, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20?$0.20Jun 19, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20?$0.20Jun 19, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20?$0.04Jun 19, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20?$1.61Jun 19, 01:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 161 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
161 closed markets, 80% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 23:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 03:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 161 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.