Crazy-Cranberry
0xaa81efdc21ae5511553e76d60fb1a845f999aaf7
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$17.44
Total PnL
$-708.10
Realised
$-141.36
Win rate
41%
102 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
375 shares @ 1.2¢·now 3.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2028$13.28
$8.78
- YES
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $750B by July 31?
1664 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.16
$2.50
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 in May?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Over $70M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in May?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$20.73Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$4.16Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYGage Jump: Strikeouts O/U 5.5$0.41Jul 28, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$6.44Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?$11.11Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?$2.19Jul 28, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?$8.70Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$2.75Jul 28, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$9.86Jul 28, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$2.13Jul 28, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?$3.00Jul 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?$11.09Jul 28, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLKelsey Plum: Assists O/U 5.5$0.60Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?$12.00Jul 28, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?$11.77Jul 28, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLKelsey Plum: Assists O/U 5.5$1.00Jul 28, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?$0.22Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?$11.99Jul 28, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYKBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. LG Twins$5.66Jul 28, 13:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 102 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
102 closed markets, 41% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 102 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.