Turbulent-Pastry
0xaac37c1657b631b6d5329abc2606e9177969a4cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-234.25
Realised
$-69.42
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 31?
190 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- YES
Will Hang Seng (HSI) hit 19200 (LOW) in March?
175 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.27
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23?
161 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.45
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?
145 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.46
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
118 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-33.12
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 9?
107 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.36
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 25?
83 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-22.72
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 16?
80 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.91
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 20?
74 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down on March 16?
74 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-20.62
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?$68.19Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?$66.62Jul 27, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 9?$2.52Jul 9, 01:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 7?$78.33Jul 7, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 7?$76.84Jul 6, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on July 1?$1.73Jun 30, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2?$75.00Jun 2, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2?$73.05Jun 1, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 31?$1.42May 31, 00:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 25?$77.23May 25, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 25?$74.06May 24, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23?$1.55May 23, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 16?$2.04May 15, 19:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 15?$67.94May 15, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 15?$66.17May 15, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$58.24May 7, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on April 27?$23.61Apr 27, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on April 27?$20.30Apr 27, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$56.26Apr 21, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMTom Lee mindshare all time high by March 31?$75.42Apr 21, 15:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $34.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 25, 11:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.