Improbable-Strike
0xaae631f35ab5996608dadac810a5463545b9522d
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-512.36
Realised
$-13.96
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
2647 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-9.68
- BILLS
Eagles vs. Bills
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-2.00
- LAKERS
Pistons vs. Lakers
333 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?
316 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
237 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.10
- NO
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?
213 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-11.87
- NO
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
147 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-98.76
- YES
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
139 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-118.54
- BEARS
Bears vs. 49ers
103 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-35.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?$98.76Apr 7, 19:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 4, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Mar 3, 00:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$66.60Mar 3, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$41.00Mar 3, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$107.51Mar 3, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$132.20Mar 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Mar 2, 01:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Mar 1, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Feb 28, 00:39 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Feb 27, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Feb 26, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Feb 25, 00:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Feb 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Feb 23, 00:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Feb 22, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$34.50Feb 21, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$34.50Feb 21, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$48.04Feb 21, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$48.03Feb 21, 07:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $36.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 20, 18:19 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 7, 19:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".