Wallet digest

active

Activity score

37/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$2.15

Total PnL

$-54.27

Realised

$-1.94

Win rate

44 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 44

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
2 shares @ 92.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026
$2.15
$0.15
YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?
322 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
23 shares @ 40.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-9.48
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
21 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 16?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.01Aug 19, 13:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.01Aug 19, 13:59 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.03Aug 19, 13:58 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.01Aug 19, 13:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$1.03Aug 19, 13:24 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.10Aug 19, 13:24 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.01Aug 19, 13:24 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.34Aug 19, 12:53 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.03Aug 19, 12:50 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$1.05Aug 19, 12:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$1.01Aug 19, 11:18 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$2.26Aug 19, 00:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$1.07Aug 19, 00:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$1.52Aug 18, 22:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$1.03Aug 18, 22:41 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.55Aug 18, 21:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.04Aug 18, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5PM ET$1.04Aug 18, 21:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.04Aug 18, 20:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.32Aug 18, 20:52 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

5% win rate over 44 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

44 closed markets, 5% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry45 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $1.20
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 16, 17:35 UTC
Last active: Aug 19, 13:59 UTC
Win rate sample: 44 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:57:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data