Improbable-Merchant
0xaafa919c749a50f5f9b2e544e7cbfc2585006470
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$1.39
Total PnL
$-5.06
Realised
$-2.77
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 94.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$1.39
$0.08
- YES
Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
154 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2024$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election?
153 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff?
144 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-0.14
- YES
Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25?
140 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2024$0.00
$-0.14
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win North Carolina Governor Election?
134 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.13
- YES
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?
120 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will Grigoriy Oparin win the 2024 US Chess Championship?
120 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2024$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Iowa Presidential Election?
117 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season?
101 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Girona FC win La Liga?$0.10Feb 5, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League?$0.12Jan 29, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals?$0.14Jan 19, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring?$0.02Dec 15, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring?$0.06Dec 15, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring?$0.04Dec 15, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff?$0.14Dec 8, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election?$0.15Nov 6, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a candidate from another party win North Carolina Governor Election?$0.13Nov 6, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a candidate from another party win Iowa Presidential Election?$0.01Nov 3, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a candidate from another party win Iowa Presidential Election?$0.11Nov 3, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?$0.12Nov 1, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season?$0.10Oct 30, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?$0.10Oct 28, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?$0.15Oct 28, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election?$0.13Oct 22, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another candidate win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?$0.15Oct 22, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?$0.10Oct 22, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vasile Tarlev win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?$0.10Oct 22, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grigoriy Oparin win the 2024 US Chess Championship?$0.12Oct 22, 11:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $81.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 22, 10:50 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 5, 23:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".