Fuzzy-Astrolabe
0xab19716584931d81cd9e7763402673a64baa4876
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$218.9K
Total PnL
$-40.2K
Realised
$-40.0K
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
189532 shares @ 89.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$165.8K
$-4.4K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
17414 shares @ 88.8¢·now 95.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$16.7K
$1.2K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
15445 shares @ 72.1¢·now 85.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$13.2K
$2.1K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
11409 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.4K
$57.06
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
9277 shares @ 46.3¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$-76.60
- NO
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
4293 shares @ 69.4¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$711.67
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
3132 shares @ 86.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$203.57
- NO
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
1546 shares @ 79.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$7.73
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
627 shares @ 50.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$410.44
$97.13
- NO
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
417 shares @ 70.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$244.05
$-47.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$0.98Aug 3, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$101.11Aug 3, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$1.2KAug 3, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$7.9KAug 3, 11:42 UTC
- MERGEPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$0.36Aug 3, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$10.11Aug 3, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$1.0KAug 3, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$52.89Aug 3, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$59.66Aug 3, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$46.76Aug 3, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$0.29Aug 3, 09:31 UTC
- YIELD$1.91Aug 3, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$69.42Aug 3, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?$7.11Aug 2, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?$11.29Aug 2, 14:59 UTC
- MERGEPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$40.0KAug 2, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$2.5KAug 2, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$703.44Aug 2, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$5.8KAug 2, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$4.4KAug 2, 06:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$14.2K
Trades
1
Buy share
0%
Window
May 25, 17:10 UTC → May 25, 17:05 UTC
- SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$14.2K@86¢May 25, 17:05 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
$14.2K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.6K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 13:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.