This-Geyser
0xab3e079ccbda09ef9ddaa91a1558202fd30f5a69
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$21.34
Total PnL
$-245.56
Realised
$16.48
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
170 shares @ 18.0¢·now 12.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.34
$-9.26
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
491 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
260 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
213 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
100 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-9.90
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
83 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
82 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
74 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
59 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$51.91Jul 10, 20:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$3.67Jul 10, 20:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $27.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.