Hilarious-Lunch
0xab6d95012d04a0752d4388e1021afbe07b4feb2d
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$20.50
Total PnL
$-715.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
21 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$20.50
$10.25
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
1430 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2025$0.00
$-715.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$10.52Jul 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$10.61Jun 4, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.59Apr 27, 04:21 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$4.74Apr 27, 04:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$5.00Apr 27, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.60Apr 21, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$4.84Mar 24, 02:39 UTC
- REWARD$2.80Mar 2, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?$5.63Mar 1, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?$5.32Mar 1, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$4.45Feb 28, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14?$29.67Feb 28, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14?$18.10Feb 14, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 21?$18.10Feb 14, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 21?$10.74Jan 20, 10:00 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?$1.03Jan 20, 09:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oklahoma win the 2026 College Football National Championship?$3.71Jan 20, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oklahoma win the 2026 College Football National Championship?$3.67Dec 11, 02:15 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: November$1.22Dec 11, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?$1.00Nov 24, 13:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $26.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 08:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.