Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.9K

Realised

$-213.02

Win rate

65 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 65

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
806 shares @ 26.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-210.64
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
800 shares @ 24.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-195.98
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
797 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-294.96
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
793 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-224.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
769 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-238.25
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
586 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-176.83
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
582 shares @ 39.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-231.64
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
571 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-219.58
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
526 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
513 shares @ 39.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-201.71

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$1.30Jul 29, 05:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$1.02Jul 29, 05:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$2.27Jul 29, 05:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$2.57Jul 29, 05:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$49.18Jul 29, 05:04 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$28.09Jul 29, 04:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$25.32Jul 29, 03:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$4.62Jul 29, 03:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$2.28Jul 29, 03:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$2.23Jul 29, 03:54 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$67.24Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.01Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$2.11Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.26Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.57Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$52.55Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$67.56Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$51.19Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$2.45Jul 29, 01:05 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$2.42Jul 29, 01:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

5% win rate over 65 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

65 closed markets, 5% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry54 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $8.33
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 28, 14:00 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 05:06 UTC
Win rate sample: 65 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:55:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data