Gleeful-Box
0xabfb5d6a41b8e621f1796b49dc7f6a5fc24c12e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.68
Total PnL
$-437.68
Realised
$76.12
Win rate
50%
148 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
80 shares @ 3.1¢·now 4.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$3.16
$0.68
- YES
Will Barrett Pfeiffer be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 3)?
120 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.52
$0.00
- FK CSÍKSZEREDA MIERCUREA CIUC
Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-2.5)
413 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-20.71
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 23?
353 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-48.23
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 25?
249 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 6?
218 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- OVER
Mirassol FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5
185 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 10?
183 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.09
- YES
Will Club León FC win on 2026-03-06?
181 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.63
- SICHUAN BLUE WHALES
Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Zhejiang Lions
180 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.36
Recent activity
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$0.10Jul 28, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$0.02Jul 28, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$0.60Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$0.20Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$0.20Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LDPR win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.18Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Communists of Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.18Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$0.10Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$1.00Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$1.57Jul 28, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$2.17Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$2.16Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$0.30Jul 28, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$2.16Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$2.03Jul 28, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$1.68Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$0.07Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$2.27Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$0.64Jul 28, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$1.96Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 148 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
148 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 05:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 148 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.