Probable-Focus
0xac03d2e87d47092e20720ab2fd885b64665f9ce7
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-145.95
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
26778 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-115.95
- YES
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?
1788 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
769 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$1.00Mar 4, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$5.00Mar 4, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$10.00Mar 4, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$10.00Mar 4, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$10.00Mar 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYZhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?$10.00Feb 28, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$20.00Feb 28, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$80.00Feb 28, 21:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $18.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 21:06 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 00:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.